Polls have Trump leading nationally
RealClearPolitics senior elections analyst Sean Trende: As of this writing, Trump leads Biden by 2.6 percentage points nationally in the RealClearPolitics Average. This is Trump’s largest lead in the RCP average to date. Not for 2024, mind you. Ever.Let’s put this in perspective. In 2016, Trump led Hillary Clinton for all of five days in the national RCP Average, each of those days in the immediate aftermath of the Republican convention. He led in 29 polls taken over the course of the entire campaign, 10 of which are recorded in the RCP averages as Los Angeles Times/USC tracking polls.
In 2020, Trump never led Biden in the national RCP Average. He briefly closed to within four points in early January of 2020, but that is it. He led in five polls all cycle.
So, counting the L.A. Times tracker as a single poll, Trump led in a total of 24 national polls. This cycle? He’s led in that many since mid-September. He’s led in more polls in the past three weeks than he did against Biden in all of 2019-2020.
In other words, analyzing this election correctly isn’t just a matter of giving lip service to the notion that Trump can win this election. The correct position right now is that Trump is better positioned in the polls to win this election than any GOP nominee since at least 2004. Not only that, he habitually over-performs his polls.
Frankly, if you are willing to set favorites this far out, you should almost certainly declare Donald Trump the favorite. And I do believe in polls!
9 comments:
Would it kill you to mention that not only Charlie Munger, age 99, but also, Henry Kissinger, age 100, died within two days of each other.
There is nobody in our country now, that can take the place of these two titans.
Oh, but don't worry, AI will take over in just a couple of years, says the deranged "hero of our times" Elon Musk.
@12:20--It's all over the Internet...why should I blog about it?
One more thing--The wealthiest man on Planet Earth is "deranged." I think we know who is deranged and it sure is not Musk nor is it a Republican.
A Charlie Munger line" Democrats hate Trump 'so much that they're against him even when he's right'
I blog about what I want to blog about...ok? anonymous who just tried to come over her with her BS
I don't care how much money Musk has, he's a freakin lunatic.
Tesla! Tesla has been around for many years now. What has he done lately?
Nobody likes Tesla, and nobody is buying it anymore. Why do you think he is making a fool of himself on X every day now. Giving interviews like a petulant child.
His mother should come and take him back to Canada so he can be babied like he was all his life, which is why he is an idiot today.
So glad President Trump is leading praying he can MAGA ! We need him!
Thank you Lynn I appreciate your block and your topics I think they're all timely and I agree it's your blog you should have the right to write about what you want to write about. Unfortunately you have some people on coming on your blog that think that they can tell other people what to do and how to do things and they can't talk about God or Jesus or the devil or anything there's some real slaves of Satan that are coming on your blog always trying to tempt and cause a lot of chaos and problems, so hang in there and keep the faith! A lot of hail Mary prayers and the Saint Michael the archangel prayer help a lot against the devil!
@8:14...I agree with you
Post a Comment