'What a Surprise' HURRICANE FORECAST: Maybe Not So Bad This Year
South Florida residents may get a bit of a break this hurricane season. Colorado State University’s renowned tropical weather research team released its initial 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast Thursday, calling for somewhat below-normal activity.The CSU team is predicting 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and just 2 major hurricanes — all below the 1991-2020 historical averages of 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes.
The key driver behind the quieter outlook is El Niño. Current weak La Niña conditions are expected to transition to a moderate or even strong El Niño by the peak of hurricane season, which would increase wind shear over the Atlantic and make it harder for storms to develop and intensify. CSU researchers also note that sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic are running slightly cooler than normal — another factor working against storm formation.
CSU says there is a below-average probability of major hurricane landfalls along the U.S. coastline and in the Caribbean. But forecasters are quick to add the caveat that never gets old — it only takes one storm making landfall to make any season feel very active. Additional forecast updates are scheduled for June 10, July 8, and August 5.
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