National Debt

The U.S. national debt has surpassed $40 trillion for the first time

This marks an historic milestone in a borrowing buildup that has accumulated over generations, through wars, recessions, tax changes, and the expansion of major federal benefit programs under presidents of both parties.

The Treasury Department reported that total public debt outstanding reached about $40.047 trillion Tuesday, according to The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times.

The number is striking, but the more significant measure for economists is debt held by the public — money the federal government owes to investors and other entities outside the federal government.

That figure is approaching the size of the entire U.S. economy, with publicly held debt already exceeding 100% of gross domestic product, according to the Journal.

The $40 trillion figure represents the cumulative result of decades of federal borrowing rather than the policies of any single administration. The United States has carried debt since its founding, when the young nation borrowed heavily to finance the Revolutionary War.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has set a goal of reducing the federal deficit to 3% of GDP by 2028.

Read more about our debt

GDP grows beyond earlier estimates

Atlanta Fed Nearly Doubles Q4 Growth Estimate to 5.4 Percent After Strong Data

Stronger economic data and delayed releases point to more robust U.S. growth momentum toward the end of the year

U.S. economic growth prospects received a fresh boost this week as the Atlanta Federal Reserve nearly doubled its estimate for fourth-quarter output after a raft of strong data, while Fitch Ratings lifted its projections for full-year 2025 and 2026 growth after delayed government releases showed firmer economic momentum.

The Atlanta Fed’s closely watched GDPNow model lifted its estimate of fourth-quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 5.4 percent on Jan. 8, up from 2.9 percent a day earlier, after incorporating new data on trade, consumer spending, and services activity.

Separately, Fitch said on Jan. 8 that delayed economic releases revealed firmer momentum in the second half of 2025 than previously assumed, prompting upward revisions to its medium-term growth forecasts.

Geiger Capital described the Atlanta Fed’s upgrade as a “massive expansion” largely attributable to the narrowing trade deficit, with new data released on Jan. 8 by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showing that America’s trade gap shrank to its lowest level in 16 years.

Read the rest of the data

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model offers good short-term accuracy, generally improving as the quarter progresses, with historically low errors pre-pandemic (around 0.5 ppt absolute error) and slightly higher post-pandemic (closer to 0.77 ppt average error)

The State of the Union

Federal Goverment Revenue and Expenses

The federal government spent 28.7% more than it collected in FY 2022, resulting in a $1.45 trillion deficit.

The national debt hit $30.9 trillion last fiscal year.

The federal debt held by the public is equivalent to 94.5% of GDP, similar to the 94.7% ratio of FY 2021, but higher than the average of 71.3% in the 10 years before the pandemic.

The child poverty rate rose to 17% in January from 12% in December — a 41% increase. DEC. 15, 2022 — The median estimated poverty rate for school-age children in all U.S. school districts in 2021 was 14.5%, according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau. Inflation hit a 4 decade high.

The State of the Union And tonight we will hear what a terrific job Biden has done as more and more people fall into poverty.

"It's about the Economy, Stupid"

September Jobs Report Brings Good News for American Workers

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President Trump’s economy continues to boom, notching the lowest unemployment rate in nearly half a century.

Historically Low Unemployment
• The unemployment rate for September dropped to 3.7%, the lowest since 1969.
• This is the third consecutive month that the unemployment rate has been below 4% and the fifth time this year.
• Since 1970, the unemployment rate has only been below 4% on 10 occasions, and half of those have occurred under President Trump.
• The unemployment rate for those that graduated high school but did not attend college is the lowest since April 2001 (3.7%).
• The unemployment rate for Hispanics matched its all-time low (4.5%).
• The unemployment rate for women matched its lowest rate in 65 years (3.6%).
• The unemployment rate for African Americans (6.0%) is near its all-time low set earlier this year (May 2018’s rate of 5.9%)
Rising Wages
• Nominal average hourly earnings rose by 2.8% over the past 12 months.
• Nominal weekly have increased an even stronger 3.4% over the past 12 months.
• This is the 5th consecutive month with nominal 12-month growth over 3 percent, marking the longest streak with 3 percent weekly earnings growth since 2010.
• Both nominal weekly and hourly earnings are outpacing inflation, meaning that our workers are seeing real wage growth.
Job Growth
• The economy added 134,000 jobs in September, though Hurricane Florence likely contributed to the lower employment growth during the month.
• Revisions to August and July showed 87,000 more jobs were created in those months than previously though.
• August employment was revised up by 69,000.
• July employment was revised up by 18,000.
• With the revisions to July and August, the economy has increased by 208,000 jobs per month in 2018.
• This exceeds the monthly average for the last two years.
• Manufacturing continues its strong growth under President Trump, adding 18,000 jobs in September.
• Manufacturers have added 378,000 jobs since President Trump’s inauguration.
• Manufacturers have added 408,000 jobs since President Trump’s inauguration

The Trump Effect

Retail sales are up a whopping $33 billion from last year, reports Investment Watchblog. Retailers are reporting $598 billion in holiday season sales as experts claim that “Fewer people are living paycheck to paycheck.”

Read about the Trump effect...

And silly pussy cats still are seeking safe spaces. Can we "get real" in 2018?

More Trump Good News

The Trump Effect...