Friday, August 5, 2016

Trump can Win, says Robert W. McKnight

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Robert McKnight, former Lake Worth resident and graduate and former state legislator who consumed most of the 70's and early 80's as a Rep in the Florida House and then became a Florida Senator, says that Trump can win in spite of his mouth.

Where I disagree with him are the adjectives he uses describing Trump supporters: "Trump is getting the angry white, middle class, less educated men, and there are a lot of them, at least in the current polls."  Well, he's also getting the educated populous as well as women.  

1.  Clinton has maxed out her vote.  She can only lose votes, unless a bombshell is dropped on her at the end, in which case, she will certainly lose.  Say Clinton loses 2 points, both to Other.

2.  If the marginal Trump voters finally get disgusted with him, they will probably not vote at all.  They will never vote for Clinton.  Trump loses 2 points, who do not vote.

3.  Assume continuing disgust with both Clinton and Trump, the two major third party candidates of former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson and Green Party Candidate Dr. Jill Stein will probably grow.  It is not clear how many votes they will get, but my guess is that they will draw more votes from Clinton.  Say Clinton loses 2 points, Trump 1 to Other.

4.  I believe all of America-Haters in the world will certainly attack our country again between now and the election.  This will probably help Trump.  Say Trump gains 3, taking 2 from Clinton and 1 from Other.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

trump is done----not very bright and he has proved it over and over---drop in polls says it all--------game over!!!!!!!!!!!!!