Democrat Polls for 2028

Kamala Harris dominates AOC in early 2028 Democratic primary polling

Three years before the next presidential election, Democrats are already polling their bench, and the results tell a familiar story about a party that lost the White House, lost the Senate, and lost House seats, yet keeps circling back to the same names that led them there.

A Lake Research Partners survey of 800 Democratic primary voters, conducted May 6, 11, tested a hypothetical 2028 presidential primary using ranked-choice voting scenarios.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris led a 13-candidate field with 25 percent support. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York finished fourth at 9 percent, a 16-point gap that widened further when the field narrowed.

In a five-candidate ranked-choice simulation, Harris held 30 percent. California Governor Gavin Newsom took 24 percent. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg drew 22 percent. Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Mark Kelly tied for last at 12 percent each.

When elimination rounds played out, Harris beat Newsom in the final matchup, 52 percent to 48 percent. The poll carried a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

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Early general election polls taken three years out are historically unreliable. But the Democratic appetite for testing these matchups reveals a party already gaming out 2028 with the same roster that failed in 2024.