The "endless" Iranian Conflict

Vance: Iran Fight Is Not a 'War'

Vice President JD Vance on Thursday rejected the use of the word "war" to describe the U.S. fighting with Iran and declined to predict whether the six-month-old conflict would be over by November's midterm elections, in which Republicans are trying to hold on to their narrow majorities in Congress.

"I wouldn't call it a war," Vance said after being asked during a White House press briefing about whether the fighting could be wrapped up before voters cast their ballots in the Nov. 3 congressional elections. "Right now, there is no active shooting."

Vance's comments came as Iran fired at U.S. Gulf ally Kuwait on Thursday as it continued to retaliate for rounds of U.S. strikes on Iran earlier in the week.

The vice president said the U.S. had a "responsibility" to carry out this week's strikes because Iran continues the targeting of commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Vance's description of the fighting comes as President Donald Trump and his administration face questions about the conflict's duration and its political and economic effects ahead of the midterm elections.

The administration maintains it is making progress in applying economic pressure on Iranian hardliners, including the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

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U.S. holding the line

American drones hit two Iranian tankers in Hormuz under Trump's new retaliatory policy

U.S. forces struck two Iranian government tankers anchored off Iran's coast on Tuesday and hit roughly 100 additional targets across the country, the first use of President Trump's "tanker for tanker" policy after Tehran attacked commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

American drones fired missiles into the engine rooms of both vessels, which sat north of the U.S. blockade line, while a broader CENTCOM operation hammered air-defense batteries, radar installations, maritime facilities, mine-laying equipment, and communications sites from one end of Iran's military infrastructure to the other.

The independent tracking firm TankerTrackers.com reviewed CENTCOM footage and assessed that both tankers were empty at the time of the strikes, though their precise ownership had not yet been confirmed.

The operation marks a sharp escalation in Washington's posture toward Tehran. For months, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has harassed and attacked commercial vessels transiting the strait, the narrow chokepoint through which a huge share of the world's oil moves every day. 

A pair of IRGC strikes on tankers carrying Saudi crude finally triggered the new policy, which President Trump approved to answer every Iranian attack on a commercial ship with a direct hit on an Iranian one.

Forty commercial ships moved through the strait while U.S. forces held the line.

Even as missiles and drones flew, roughly 40 commercial vessels transited into or out of the Persian Gulf on Tuesday, carrying millions of barrels of oil under the security umbrella American forces maintained over the shipping lanes.

That detail alone illustrates what the operation was designed to prove: the United States can keep global energy markets open while punishing the regime responsible for threatening them.

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Iran losing its Leverage

No, Iran is not winning: In Act IV of the war, it’s losing its leverage in Hormuz

The arc of this six-month conflict has proceeded in four acts.

• Act One began with intensive airstrikes on February 28 and lasted through six weeks of high-intensity military operations.
• Act Two began with the April 7 ceasefire and negotiations, culminating with the June 17 MOU signed by Trump and Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian.
• Act Three began weeks later when Iran chose once again to target commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to another tit-for-tat military exchange.

Since mid-July, the US has reimposed its military blockade on Iranian ports and sanctions on Iran’s oil trade. In parallel, the U.S. military has worked tirelessly to clear shipping lanes and help protect commercial ships transiting the Strait.

The result has been an effective blockade on Iranian oil shipments, with global shipments recovering and energy prices remaining remarkably stable. Bloomberg reported this week that oil flows through the Strait have recovered to 2/3 of pre-war levels.

That means pressure is now compounding on Iran, and not the US. And if Iran loses its ability to hold the Strait hostage, its leverage dissipates rapidly.

According to the International Monetary Fund, Iran’s economy is expected to contract by more than 5% this year, with inflation approaching 70%. The value of Iran’s currency has fallen sharply. Prices for basic goods have soared. An Iranian Labor Ministry official recently estimated that more than one million jobs disappeared during the first three months of the war alone.

• But Act Four seems different. The US military has a clear objective as outlined this week by the commander of CENTCOM, Admiral Brad Cooper. It is enforcing the blockade on Iran and facilitating the movement of commercial traffic.

And that status quo — perhaps for the first time since the war began — now favors Washington, not Tehran.

Analysis by Brett H. McGurk

Iran continues to disrupt shipping

Tankers Hit Near Hormuz as Iran Warns of Wider Disruption

Two commercial tankers reported separate security incidents near the Strait of Hormuz overnight as Iran warned the United States that continued military pressure could disrupt other strategic shipping routes, raising fresh concerns about global energy supplies and the potential for another escalation in the five-month conflict.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, a British military-linked maritime security organization, said Saturday it received reports of two incidents near the entrance to the strategic waterway off Oman.

In the first, a tanker about 11 nautical miles northeast of Limah was struck by an "unknown projectile," damaging its engine room and leaving the vessel unable to maneuver. UKMTO said there were no reported injuries or environmental damage.

A short time later, the master of another tanker about 21 nautical miles northeast of Khasab reported seeing a large splash and explosion near the vessel. No damage or injuries were reported.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps separately claimed it struck two oil tankers traveling under what it said was U.S. military escort after they allegedly used an unauthorized route.

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Trump gives Iran another Warning

Trump warns of strikes to infrastructure if Iran targets ships in Strait of Hormuz

President Trump on Wednesday threatened to authorize strikes against Iranian civilian infrastructure if the Islamic Republic continues to target vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

“From this point forward, any time the Islamic Republic of Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, whether it be by Missile, Rocket, Drone, or any other device or weapon, the United States will bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT, including those located next to, or in, the Capital City of Tehran,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

The president’s maximalist rhetoric toward Tehran is not new, as he threatened to strike civilian infrastructure multiple times during the early months of the war. Trump warned Iran in April that a “whole civilization will die,” before backing off his threat to launch a wave of severe strikes.

International attacks on civilians and civilian objects that are not directly involved in hostilities are war crimes under Article 8 of the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC), which the U.S. is not a party to. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also announced a diplomatic effort last week to “dismantle” the ICC.

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Latest strikes against Iran

US Military Hits 80 Iran Targets After Strait of Hormuz Attacks

The U.S. military released unclassified footage Tuesday showing its latest strikes against Iran after a new round of attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

According to U.S. Central Command, American forces hit more than 80 targets in the operation. CENTCOM said the strikes were carried out with precision munitions and were meant as an immediate response to Iranian attacks on vessels moving through one of the world’s most important shipping lanes.

The Strait of Hormuz is a major route for global energy shipments. When Iran targets ships there, it is not just a regional problem. It threatens trade, fuel markets, allies, and international shipping crews trying to do their jobs.

Earlier Tuesday, Tehran reportedly struck three ships, including a Qatari natural gas vessel. CENTCOM identified the targeted commercial vessels as the Marshall Islands-flagged M/T Al Rekayyat, the Saudi Arabia-flagged M/T Wedyan, and the Liberian-flagged M/T Cyprus Prosperity.

The U.S. described Iran’s actions as “a clear violation of the ceasefire.”

In its statement, CENTCOM said, “U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces completed a new round of offensive strikes against Iran, July 7, hitting over 80 targets with precision munitions as an immediate response to Iran’s latest attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.”

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Iran attacked cargo ship at Strait of Hormuz

Iran Struck Cargo Ship in Strait of Hormuz, US Official Says

The U.N. International Maritime Organization said it would temporarily pause its evacuation operation pending further clarity.

Iranian forces attacked a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on June 24, according to a U.S. official who spoke with The Epoch Times.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) previously reported that a vessel was struck by “an unknown projectile” while operating off the coast of Oman, but did not attribute the attack to any particular nation-state or actor.

The UKMTO, which is operated by the British Royal Navy, said the projectile damaged the bridge of the vessel but reported no injuries or environmental impact as a result of the attack.

When reached for comment about the attack, a U.S. official said Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a drone at the vessel in question.

The U.N. International Maritime Organization paused its operation to escort ships through ‌the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday after Iranian forces attacked a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz a day before.

The Epoch Times

Trump Warns Tehran

Trump’s Brutal Threat to Iran Over Blockade: ‘You Won’t Even Make It Back to Your F–king Country’

President Trump issued a blistering warning to Iran on Sunday as Vice President JD Vance joined negotiators in Switzerland.

The president threatened severe consequences if Tehran closes the Strait of Hormuz or fails to rein in its terrorist proxies.

Trump’s sharpest warning was aimed directly at Iran’s diplomats in Switzerland.

“You won’t even make it back to your f–king country,” Trump told Iran’s

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Coalition plans to reopen critical Strait of Hormuz

UK, France Prepare Hormuz Mine-Clearing Mission As Ceasefire Talks Advance

The United Kingdom and France are finalizing plans for a multinational mine-clearing operation in the Strait of Hormuz that could begin shortly after any ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, according to Bloomberg.

The proposed mission would involve 15 nations and would include direct communication with Tehran to prevent misunderstandings as coalition vessels work to reopen one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints.

According to Bloomberg, the UK and France have almost finished formulating a plan to implement a mine/clearing operation in the Strait of Hormuz, following a potential deal between the U.S. and Iran on a lasting ceasefire. The plan would be a multinational effort and comes… pic.twitter.com/pWZ8MUlJ1y-- OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 4, 2026

The effort comes after months of disruption in the Gulf following the 2026 escalation that began when U.S. and Israeli forces struck Iranian nuclear facilities. In response, Iran laid naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, effectively closing a waterway responsible for roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments.

The closure has triggered one of the largest oil supply disruptions in modern history, removing an estimated 10 million to 14 million barrels per day or more from global seaborne oil trade.

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Iran War - Global costs

Iran war saddles global companies with $25 billion bill - and counting

The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has already cost companies around the world at least $25 billion - and the bill is climbing, according to a Reuters analysis.

A review of ​corporate statements since the start of the conflict by companies listed in the United States, Europe and Asia offers a sobering look at the fallout. Businesses are grappling with soaring energy prices, fractured supply ‌chains and trade routes severed by Iran's chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz - the world's most critical energy chokepoint - has pushed oil prices above $100 a ​barrel, more than 50% higher than before the war.

The closure has driven up shipping costs, squeezed supplies of raw materials and cut off trade routes vital to the flow of goods. Supplies of fertilizers, helium, aluminium, polyethylene and other key inputs have been hit.

One-fifth of companies in the review - which make everything from cosmetics to tyres and detergent, to cruise operators and airlines - have flagged a financial hit due to the war.

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The conflict began on February 28, 2026. Let's end it...no more threats unless you carry them out.

Iran is violating International Law

US Proposes UN Security Council Resolution to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

Rubio said he is unsure whether the resolution can survive a permanent veto from Russia or China.

The United States, with its Gulf partners, is proposing a United Nations Security Council resolution to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to the State Department.

The resolution was drafted with Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Qatar, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a press statement on May 5. It calls on Iran to cease attacking ships, laying mines, and trying to charge tolls in the Strait, which is classified as an international waterway.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran continues to hold the world’s economy hostage with its efforts to close the Strait of Hormuz, threats to attack ships in the Strait, laying of sea mines that pose a danger to shipping, and attempts to charge tolls for the world’s most important waterway,” Rubio said.

He added that the draft resolution “demands that Iran disclose the number and location of the sea mines it has laid and cooperate with efforts to remove them, while also supporting the establishment of a humanitarian corridor.”

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Trump Announces Surprise Pause

Trump Announces Temporary Pause of ‘Project Freedom’ Amid Progress Toward Iran Deal

President Trump announced Tuesday that “Project Freedom” in the Strait of Hormuz is being paused after what he described as major military success and fresh movement toward a peace deal with Iran.

The pause does not end the blockade, but it signals that the White House believes a possible agreement with Tehran may now be close enough to justify a temporary halt in ship-movement operations.

President Trump revealed the pause in a Truth Social post Tuesday. He said the decision came after requests from Pakistan and other countries.

Trump also pointed to what he called “the tremendous Military Success” of the campaign against Iran.

He said the move was also tied to “Great Progress” toward a final agreement with Iranian representatives. The president framed the pause as a test to see whether the deal can be finished and signed. The Blockade Will Still Remain in Place.

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Iranian ship defied six hours of warnings, and the U.S. acted.

U.S. evacuates 22 crew members from seized Iranian vessel, hands them to Pakistan for return to Tehran

The United States evacuated 22 crew members from the Iranian container ship Touska and transferred them to Pakistan, where officials said they would be handed over to Iranian authorities on Monday.

The move follows last month's seizure of the vessel off Iran's Chabahar port in the Gulf of Oman, one more chapter in an escalating series of maritime confrontations between Washington and Tehran.

Pakistan's foreign ministry described the crew transfer as a "confidence-building measure" and said the Touska itself would be moved into Pakistani territorial waters for return to its owners after necessary repairs.

The diplomatic choreography puts Pakistan in the middle, a transit point for crew and ship alike, while the broader standoff between the U.S. and Iran remains unresolved.

The seizure of the Touska fits a pattern that has defined the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks. Since the U.S. and Israel declared a fragile ceasefire with Iran roughly four weeks ago, neither side has settled into anything resembling peace.

Instead, Washington and Tehran have traded naval confrontations and seized each other's commercial vessels in a tit-for-tat that has kept international shipping lanes on edge.

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Trump weighs options in Iran Conflict

Trump Weighs Iran Strike, Strait Options

President Donald Trump on Thursday reportedly will be updated on plans for potential military action in Iran, as tensions escalate and negotiations remain at a standstill.

Trump is set to receive a high-level briefing from CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper outlining options that include a "short and powerful" wave of strikes targeting Iranian infrastructure, Axios reported.

The plans, developed by U.S. military leaders, are aimed at breaking the deadlock in nuclear negotiations and forcing Tehran back to the table with greater flexibility.

The briefing indicates how seriously the administration is weighing next steps after months of economic pressure and naval maneuvering in the region.

One option under consideration involves taking control of portions of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil shipments, to ensure commercial shipping can resume safely.

Other proposals reportedly include special operations missions to secure Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium.

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Iran the Pinocchio for peace

You can not trust Iran for one day

Hormuz traffic status disintegrates when Iran rejects port blockade

Just a day after President Donald Trump and Iran officials both announced that traffic was resuming through the Strait of Hormuz, a key path that carries some 20% of the world's oil supplies, Iran has reversed course.

It announced heading into the weekend that the "control of the Strait of Hormuz has returned to its previous state … under strict management and control of the armed forces."

The rogue Islamic regime is protesting Trump's continued blockade of its ports, a move that was designed to apply pressure on Iran to reach a longer term agreement that would provide, after decades of instability because of its worldwide sponsorship of terror, some level ground.

The reopening had been conditioned on a ceasefire between Hezbollah, in Lebanon, and Israel, and Trump has just announced that was beginning.

At Not the Bee came the comment, "We're back at a stalemate it would appear. … The deal didn't even last 24 hours and Iran has reversed course, reimposed sanctions, and closed the strait once more."

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Trump's Art of the Deal

Trump's Strategy goes full speed ahead

In poker, there’s a moment the table goes quiet because everyone knows someone just overplayed their hand. Five days ago, every talking head in Washington was certain that someone was Donald Trump.

The Islamabad talks had collapsed. Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, flew home and delivered his toughest line yet: “If you fight, we will fight.” Pundits nodded gravely.

A Kings College London analyst declared Trump’s strategy “unrealistic” and predicted the president would “have to concede.” Joe Rogan — who endorsed Trump in 2024 — called the whole situation “terrifying” and wondered aloud how we got here.

Across the Atlantic, Macron and Starmer hastily organized a 40-nation summit to plan their own maritime initiative for the Strait of Hormuz, conspicuously without the United States. The world was bracing for a long, ugly stalemate.

Then, on Monday morning, the U.S. Navy began its blockade.

Ten thousand service members. Over a hundred aircraft. More than a dozen warships parked on Iran’s doorstep. Every port watched, every ship tracked. CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper put it simply: “No ships have or will evade U.S. forces.”

Nineteen vessels turned around in 72 hours. Not one slipped through. And it wasn’t just Iran feeling the squeeze — their biggest trading partners, China chief among them, couldn’t afford the disruption either. The economic vice was total.

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Betting against Trump is a losing bet.

Iran and the "ceasefire"

Iran Declares Strait of Hormuz Open, but Warns of Risk From Mines

They had a hell of a nerve laying mines in a major waterway that they don't own

“Those technical restrictions are very much connected to the wartime condition, and it takes time to be removed,” Khatibzadeh said, adding that each vessel should make “necessary arrangements” with the Iranian authorities to be able to pass through the strait safely.

In a post on X on April 9 local time, the Iranian Consulate in Mumbai warned of “possible anti-ship mines” and shared a map showing a mined area in the main channel of the strait.

It encouraged ships to take two alternative corridors further north, one of which is what became known as the “tollbooth” lane, north of Larak Island.

Oil hovered near $98 a barrel on April 9, as traffic through the strait remained well below peacetime levels.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said France is finalizing plans with around 14 other European nations to escort ships through the strait.

“The fundamental freedoms ‌of the seas must not be unilaterally withdrawn or sold off ​to individual bidders,” British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper is expected to say. According to the advance copy. “Nor can there be ​any place for tolls on ​an international waterway. Freedom of navigation means navigation must be ⁠free.”

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Iran blaming Israel for breaking ceasefire deal

Ceasefire Agreement with Iran

Iran claims Israel broke the agreement with its continued violence in Lebanon during the ceasefire period and Iran is accusing Israel of violating the conditional ceasefire announced by President Trump by continuing its war with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Iranian media outlets say Tehran is suspending tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and considering pulling out of the deal with Washington over Israel's actions.

Iran reportedly prevented ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz Wednesday morning, even though opening the strait was a key aspect of the ceasefire agreement reached Tuesday night.

Iran is accusing Israel of violating the conditional ceasefire announced by President Trump by continuing its war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iranian media outlets say Tehran is suspending tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and considering pulling out of the deal with Washington over Israel's actions.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said President Trump is aware of reports saying the strait has been closed, but said the reports "are false." There were new attacks on America's Persian Gulf allies early Wednesday after the ceasefire announcement, and then reports of explosions on two Iranian islands in the Gulf said Iran.

All sides have presented vastly different versions of the terms. In one instance, Iran said the deal would allow it to formalize its new practice of charging ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which the White House said U.S. President Donald Trump opposes.

Pakistan said talks to seek a permanent end to the war could begin in Islamabad as soon as Friday. The White House confirmed that U.S. Vice President JD Vance will lead the U.S. negotiating team.

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Seizing Kharg Island

Iran ‘Laying Traps’ And ‘Building Up Defenses’ On Kharg Island

Preparing For US Ground Attack

Iran has recently bolstered its defenses around Kharg Island, anticipating a possible U.S. move to seize the key oil export hub, CNN reported this week. The island is vital to Iran’s economy, handling roughly 90% of its crude shipments, and has become a focal point in escalating tensions.

The Trump administration has explored the option of sending U.S. forces to take control of the island as leverage to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz. But military officials caution that such an operation would carry serious risks.

Iran has reinforced the island with additional air defense systems, including portable missiles, and has planted mines along likely landing zones.

There is also growing skepticism among U.S. allies and policymakers about whether capturing the island would achieve its broader objective. Even if successful, it may not resolve the wider dispute over energy flows and could instead intensify the conflict.

An Israeli source warned that U.S. troops could face attacks from drones and shoulder-fired missiles if they attempt a landing. Some analysts suggest that targeting Iran’s oil exports through a naval blockade could be a less risky alternative to putting troops on the ground.

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