2030 Census

The current census model apportions congressional districts to states based on total population rather than total citizens

But the administration published a regulation in the Federal Register last month, now open for public comment, that would no longer count illegal aliens or legal residents with a status lower than a green card. The new rule would also eliminate questions on the form about race and sexual preference.

The study shows that under the existing model of counting illegal immigrants, the 2030 census would result in California, Texas, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Florida gaining congressional seats and electoral votes.

Meanwhile, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin, with a lower illegal immigrant population, would lose a seat in Congress. That would be reversed under the Trump plan, Camarota said.

There are about 24 million noncitizens in the country, of whom 13 million are illegal aliens and 3.6 million are temporary workers or another legal status that falls short of being a legal permanent resident. So the new rule could mean counting about 16 million fewer people, Camarota said, director of research at the Center for Immigration Studies.

A 2024 study projected immigration trends under the Biden administration for the 2030 census, said Steven Camarota. Those projections would be altered by President Donald Trump’s existing crackdown on illegal immigration and could be reversed entirely under the census proposal.

“This census proposal could flip the dynamic,” Camarota told the Daily Signal. “Midwestern states would not lose as much, nor would Texas or California, which have large immigrant populations, both legal and illegal, gain as much.”

The Biden administration’s Census Bureau revealed in May 2022 that it undercounted the Republican-leaning states of Arkansas by 5%, Florida by 3.4%, Mississippi by 4.11%, Tennessee by 4.78%, and Texas by 1.92%. The Census Bureau undercounted one Democrat-leaning state, Illinois, by 1.97%.

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